Polymarket

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Q: What are the odds for “Ballon d'Or Winner 2026”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price Harry Kane as the most likely outcome at 76% (as of 23 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

Q: What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

Q: When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Q: Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 22:23 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)

Most likely: Harry Kane

76%▼ 0.4 pts in 24h

Price over the last 7 days, in %

All outcomes (8)

Outcome	Chance	24h
Harry Kane	76%	▼ 0.4 pts
Lamine Yamal	15%	▼ 1.1 pts
Kylian Mbappé	7%	▲ 2.2 pts
Lionel Messi	2%	▲ 0.1 pts
Rodri	<1%	▲ 0.1 pts
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia	<1%	—
Fabian Ruiz	<1%	—
Ousmane Dembélé	<1%	▼ 0.1 pts

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Ballon d'Or Winner 2026”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price Harry Kane as the most likely outcome at 76% (as of 23 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.