Longer reads on forecasting, market structure and how crowds price the future.
Eleven days out, prediction markets and forecast models agree that Democrats are favourites to win the House and lean towards them in the Senate. Every forecast side by side, the seat-by-seat distribution, the Senate races and governorships that decide it, and how the predictions could be wrong, with charts.
A soldier charged over Maduro bets, a Google engineer, George Santos, congressional candidates betting on themselves: 2026 made insider trading the biggest problem in prediction markets. Every major case, what the rules say, how Kalshi and Polymarket police it, and what Congress wants, with charts.
LeBron James is starting a record 24th season, at 41, with the Philadelphia 76ers on a minimum deal. Prediction markets give about a 41% chance he retires before next season, down from 70% in June. The odds, his contract, the records within reach and the 76ers’ title chances, with charts.
Prediction markets expect Anthropic to list in November 2026, ahead of OpenAI, at a first-day value near $2 trillion. What has been reported about the timetable, how the odds have moved since the confidential filing, the valuation brackets traders are betting on, and the AI race behind it, with charts.
GTA 6 has been delayed twice. With four weeks to go, prediction markets put the chance of a third delay at about 3%, down from 42% in January. The odds, the full delay history, what could still go wrong, and the other GTA 6 markets traders are betting on, with charts.
Prediction markets make Democrat James Talarico about a 68% favourite over Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, even though October polls show a race within two points. The odds, the polls, why the market is more confident than the polling, and what could still move it.
Democrat Troy Jackson, who replaced Graham Platner on the ballot in July, is about a 65% favourite against Senator Susan Collins in prediction markets. The odds, the October polls, what happened to Platner, ranked-choice voting and Collins’s 2020 comeback.
Markets give Democrats about a 67% chance of winning the Senate and about 92% for the House, with a Democratic sweep the single most likely outcome. The balance-of-power odds, the Senate seats that decide it, and how the markets compare with forecast models.
Polymarket has listed hundreds of markets on the 2026 Iran war, from ceasefires to who leads Iran. What they price today, why one was pulled and another ended up in a $100 million-plus dispute, the insider-trading worries, and why you will not find these markets on Kalshi.
In February 2026 Giannis Antetokounmpo became the first NBA player to own part of Kalshi. How big the stake is, the trading restrictions that come with it, why Adam Silver called it “minuscule”, and the integrity questions it raised.
