Longer reads on forecasting, market structure and how crowds price the future.
In February 2026 Polymarket opened a free pop-up grocery store in Manhattan, a jab at Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s plan for city-run groceries. What it was, how long it lasted, the queues and the $1 million donation, and why a prediction market did it.
Traders put the chance of a US purchase of Greenland before 2027 at under 3%, even after the September 2026 US–Denmark–Greenland security deal. The live odds, the year’s timeline, why the deal does not count, and how these markets settle.
Polymarket went from about $1 billion to a reported $21 billion in a little over a year. Every funding round, ICE’s stake, the 1789 Capital deal, IPO and token talk, and how anyone can get exposure to Polymarket today.
Coinbase lets US users trade yes/no event contracts from the same app as their crypto, powered by Kalshi. How it works, how to fund it, what the fees look like, which markets you get, and when Kalshi itself is the better choice.
CNN, CNBC, the Wall Street Journal, Yahoo Finance and Google Finance all show Kalshi or Polymarket odds now. What each deal includes, who pays whom, the criticism, and how to read a probability you see on TV.
Underdog’s sports prediction markets run on Crypto.com’s CFTC-regulated exchange. How the partnership works, how it differs from Underdog Fantasy and from Kalshi, where it is available, and the 2026 legal fights with states.
Polymarket earns mainly from taker fees it switched on in 2026, not from users losing. How the fee formula works, which markets are free, what Polymarket US, data deals and rewards add, and how it compares with Kalshi.
Favourites in prediction markets win most of the time, and their prices are well calibrated on average. The evidence from Polymarket, the Iowa Electronic Markets and a century of election betting, the famous misses, and the biases to watch.
Prediction markets are zero-sum before fees, so profit comes from an edge. Eight strategies that work, from specialist knowledge and cross-platform pricing to negative-risk bundles, market making and high-probability trades, with the risks of each.
