Longer reads on forecasting, market structure and how crowds price the future.
People have bet on elections for centuries. The story from papal conclaves and the Curb Exchange to the Iowa Electronic Markets, Intrade, PredictIt, Kalshi’s court wins and Polymarket’s return to the US, and what each era taught us.
There is no Kalshi stock price and no Polymarket stock price, because neither company is listed. Their private valuations, how investors get exposure anyway, and what to watch for an IPO.
Kalshi earns mainly from trading fees, not from users losing. How its fee formula works, why it wants both sides of every trade, where partners like Robinhood fit, and how Polymarket makes money.
The Spurs and the Thunder are close to co-favourites for the 2027 NBA title on both Kalshi and Polymarket. The full board, what the prices mean as sportsbook odds, and where each team is cheaper.
After sweeping the Dodgers, the Brewers are about 65% to win the 2026 World Series on Kalshi and Polymarket. The full board, what it implies for each matchup, and how to read World Series betting odds.
The 49ers, Bills, Rams and Chiefs lead the 2027 NFL championship market on Kalshi and Polymarket. The full board, why Kalshi calls it “Pro Football Champion”, and how to trade the Super Bowl on each.
Federal funding runs out on December 11, 2026. Kalshi prices about a one-in-three chance of a shutdown the next day. How shutdown markets work, what moves them and how 2025–26 played out.
After a failed Senate vote in September, Polymarket gives the CLARITY Act about a 6% chance of becoming law in 2026. What the bill does, what happened, and how Kalshi prices 2027.
There are now a dozen ways to trade event contracts in the US. Which apps are exchanges, which are front ends for someone else’s exchange, and how to pick one.
