Product updates and weekly recaps of what moved the markets.
A dated roundup of prediction market news: Kalshi’s court fights and margin request, Polymarket’s growth, Robinhood and the sportsbook apps, and the odds traders are watching this month.
Polymarket has fired its chief marketing officer, Matthew Modabber, a longtime friend of CEO Shayne Coplan, the New York Post reported on 22 October. The probe followed June reports of promotional videos built on fake bets, which the CFTC is said to be investigating. What happened, the scandal behind it and what it means for users.
Polymarket US sued Ohio’s attorney general and casino regulators in federal court on 16 October, the day the state’s cease-and-desist deadline ran out. It says Ohio’s licensing rules shut out-of-state firms out and that federal law overrides them. The lawsuit, Ohio’s new warning to sportsbooks and where Polymarket stands in Ohio.
The CFTC has told Novig not to list micro contracts such as which team scores the first basket, and ProphetX to hold off on “scorigami” contracts, Front Office Sports reported on 22 October. Neither had been listed. What the contracts are, what the regulator said and what changes for Novig and ProphetX users.
Kalshi chief executive Tarek Mansour told Reuters on 21 October that the battle over who regulates sports event contracts could end up at the Supreme Court. Appeals courts disagree, New Jersey has already asked the justices to step in, and Polymarket traders give about a 29% chance they take a case by the end of 2026.
The CFTC’s enforcement director, David Miller, said on 22 October that the agency is investigating suspicious oil trading around the Iran conflict, is watching election trading on prediction markets, and wants large offshore platforms that serve Americans to register. What he said and what it means for Kalshi and Polymarket users.
The Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays open the World Series in Milwaukee on 23 October. Kalshi and Polymarket make the Brewers roughly 63–64% favourites, close to the sportsbooks. The prices, the schedule and how the markets settle.
Brazil votes on 25 October. Polls show a near tie between Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula, but Polymarket’s biggest market of the month gives Bolsonaro about 79%. Why traders are more confident than the polls, and what the margin and turnout markets say.
Polymarket gives Gadi Eisenkot about a 50% chance of becoming prime minister after Israel’s 27 October election, against 26.5% for Benjamin Netanyahu. Eisenkot’s Yashar leads most polls, but neither bloc reaches 61 seats. The odds, the polls and why coalition maths makes this hard to call.
Kalshi Prime clients will be able to borrow against bitcoin, ether and compliant stablecoins held at BitGo to margin perpetual futures, and Webull says eligible US customers can trade Kalshi’s perps from November. What was announced and what it means.
