Product updates and weekly recaps of what moved the markets.
Kalshi and Polymarket put about an 88% chance on the Fed holding rates at its 27–28 October meeting, after September’s first hike since 2023. A December hike is priced at about 75%. The odds, the inflation data behind them and what to watch.
Bloomberg reported on 20 October that Founders Fund made Polymarket’s CEO repay private-jet and rent costs before investing in 2025, and that backers now want a chief operating officer. Polymarket says the jet was used for business and the expense was disclosed. The details, the $21 billion round and the race with Kalshi.
Trading on 2026 election markets has passed $750 million across Kalshi and Polymarket, across more than 21,000 midterm markets. Congressional betting alone is more than double the whole 2024 cycle. Who is trading, where the money goes and the insider-trading worries.
Kalshi’s US500 perpetual, tracking the 500 largest US-listed companies, went live on 6 October after CFTC approval. A second contract on 10-year Treasury yields is under an extended review until 29 November. What each contract is and why Kalshi is moving into financial perps.
Tennessee’s Sports Wagering Council told Underdog on 9 October to stop offering sports event contracts or face fines and the loss of its fantasy licence. Underdog sued on 13 October. The same day the letter went out, Kalshi asked the full Sixth Circuit to rehear the ruling that let Tennessee and Ohio enforce their gambling laws.
On 2 October 2026 a federal judge in Chicago granted Kalshi and Coinbase a preliminary injunction against Illinois’s licensing and criminal rules, finding many sports contracts are likely swaps under federal law. What was blocked, what was not, and why a Wisconsin ruling went the other way.
Utah’s attorney general filed a state-court lawsuit on 20 October 2026 against Kalshi and two Susquehanna trading firms, arguing the market makers act as the house. What the suit asks for and why it is different.
After the Sixth Circuit ruled for Ohio, the state’s casino regulator ordered ten prediction market operators to stop offering sports contracts by 16 October. Most did not. What happens next.
On 9 October 2026 the CFTC proposed adding event contracts on sports, politics, culture and weather to the definition of a swap, which would put them under its exclusive jurisdiction, while declaring sportsbooks and casino games outside it.
