Kalshi’s fight with the states could reach the Supreme Court, CEO says
Kalshi chief executive Tarek Mansour told Reuters on 21 October that the battle over who regulates sports event contracts could end up at the Supreme Court. Appeals courts disagree, New Jersey has already asked the justices to step in, and Polymarket traders give about a 29% chance they take a case by the end of 2026.
In this article
The fight over Kalshi's sports contracts may be heading for the US Supreme Court. In an interview with Reuters on 21 October 2026, Kalshi chief executive Tarek Mansour said the clash with states over who regulates prediction markets could end up before the justices. He declined to put odds on Kalshi winning there but said the company was very confident in its legal position.
Why the Supreme Court is in play
Federal appeals courts disagree on the central question: are sports event contracts on a CFTC-regulated exchange federal derivatives, or gambling that states can police?
| Court | Ruling |
|---|---|
| Third Circuit (New Jersey) | Sided with Kalshi: federal commodities law stops New Jersey enforcing its gambling laws |
| Ninth Circuit (Nevada), 28 August 2026 | Sided with the state |
| Sixth Circuit (Ohio and Tennessee), 25 September 2026 | Sided with the states |
A split between circuits is the classic reason the Supreme Court takes a case. New Jersey has already asked the court to review the Third Circuit's ruling, and the NFL has filed a brief urging it to do so (the NFL's brief). Kalshi has asked the full Sixth Circuit to rehear its case.
What the market says
Polymarket has a market on exactly this question: will the Supreme Court agree to hear a case on the legality or regulation of sports event contracts?
| Deadline | Chance (Polymarket, 23 October) |
|---|---|
| By 31 October 2026 | about 2% |
| By 31 December 2026 | about 29% |
A July deadline on the same market resolved "No". More than $1 million has been traded on it (the market). If the court takes a case this term, a decision would usually come by the end of June 2027.
Why it matters to Kalshi
Sports are close to 65% of Kalshi's revenue, Mansour said, down from about 95% nine months ago, as politics, economics and new products grow. The legal outcome still decides whether sports contracts can be offered nationwide or state by state. The company says its sports contracts are financial derivatives under the CFTC; states say they are bets subject to their gambling laws and taxes.
The pressure is building on both sides. Ohio has ordered ten operators to stop offering sports contracts and Polymarket has sued the state (Polymarket sues Ohio), while the CFTC is trying to settle the question in its own rules (the CFTC proposal).
What it means for traders
Until the Supreme Court rules, availability depends on where you live and on each state's case. The current state-by-state picture: is Kalshi legal?.
