The NFL tells the Supreme Court that prediction market sports contracts are gambling
The NFL filed a brief on 8 October 2026 backing New Jersey’s request for the Supreme Court to hear its case against Kalshi. Its arguments, the integrity concerns it raised, and the timeline for a decision.
The National Football League asked the US Supreme Court on 8 October 2026 to take up the fight over prediction markets. In a friend-of-the-court brief backing New Jersey in Flaherty v. KalshiEX (No. 26-299), the league argued that sports event contracts are gambling that states should regulate, not federally regulated swaps.
What the NFL argued
- Sports contracts are bets, not swaps. Borrowing reasoning from the Sixth and Ninth Circuits, the league said swaps hedge existing financial risk, while sports contracts simply expose people to the outcome of a game.
- Integrity risks. It said about $1.8 billion of $3.3 billion in prediction market volume on the season's first Sunday was tied to the NFL, and flagged contracts that a single player could influence, such as a missed field goal.
- A thin regulator. It noted the CFTC has about 543 employees to police these markets nationwide.
- Age. It called for a minimum age of 21; Kalshi allows 18-year-olds (Kalshi age requirement).
The case so far
| When | What happened |
|---|---|
| 6 April 2026 | The Third Circuit rules 2–1 for Kalshi against New Jersey |
| 28 August 2026 | The Ninth Circuit rules the other way in Nevada's case (Kalshi in Nevada) |
| 2 September 2026 | New Jersey files its petition with the Supreme Court |
| 8 September 2026 | The petition is docketed as No. 26-299 |
| 25 September 2026 | The Sixth Circuit also rules against Kalshi, for Ohio and Tennessee |
| 8 October 2026 | The NFL files its brief; attorneys general from 39 states have filed a joint brief backing review |
What happens next
Kalshi has until 9 November to respond. The Court is not expected to decide whether to hear the case before December. The split between appeals courts is the kind of conflict the Supreme Court usually resolves, and the CFTC's new proposal to define sports contracts as swaps adds another layer (CFTC proposal).
For traders, nothing changes until a ruling: availability still depends on your state (is Kalshi legal?). The league's own markets remain the biggest on the platforms (Super Bowl odds).
