Brazil Presidential Election
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 22:23 UTCCloses 26 Oct 2026 (in 2 days)
Most likely: Flávio Bolsonaro
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Flávio Bolsonaro | 76% | ▼ 1.8 pts |
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 24% | ▲ 1.0 pts |
Person O | — | — |
Person P | — | — |
Person Q | — | — |
Person R | — | — |
Person S | — | — |
Person T | — | — |
How this market resolves
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Brazil Presidential Election”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price Flávio Bolsonaro as the most likely outcome at 76% (as of 23 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 26 Oct 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.