Polymarket

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Q: What are the odds for “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price December 31 as the most likely outcome at 5% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

Q: What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

Q: When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Q: Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 05:18 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)

Most likely: December 31

5%▲ 0.3 pts in 24h

Price over the last 7 days, in %

All outcomes (2)

Outcome	Chance	24h
December 31	5%	▲ 0.3 pts
October 31	<1%	—

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price December 31 as the most likely outcome at 5% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.