Ohio governor race odds: Amy Acton vs Vivek Ramaswamy on Polymarket and Kalshi
Prediction markets make Democrat Amy Acton about a 77% favourite over Vivek Ramaswamy in the 3 November Ohio governor race, in line with most October polls. The odds, the margin market, the polls and what could still move it.
In this article
Prediction markets favour Democrat Amy Acton to win the Ohio governor race. Polymarket gives her about a 77.5% chance and Kalshi about 77%, against about 22–24% for Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. The election is on 3 November 2026.
That is a striking number in a state Donald Trump won three times, and it follows a run of October polls with Acton ahead.
Prices as of 21 October 2026. Odds move daily; see the live markets below.
Ohio governor odds today
| Candidate | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Amy Acton (Democrat) | 77.5% | 77% (bid 76¢, ask 77¢) |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (Republican) | 22.5% | 24% |
Live prices: Ohio governor on Polymarket · Ohio governor on Kalshi · our Ohio governor race page.
Margin of victory
Polymarket's margin market expects a clear but not overwhelming Acton win. As of 21 October:
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Acton by 3–6 points | 23% |
| Acton by 9–12 points | 16% |
| Acton by 6–9 points | 15% |
| Acton by 12+ points | 14% |
| Ramaswamy by 0–3 points | 11.5% |
The candidates
- Amy Acton, Ohio's former health director, who became widely known during the state's early pandemic response.
- Vivek Ramaswamy, the entrepreneur and 2024 Republican presidential candidate, backed by Donald Trump.
The seat is open because Governor Mike DeWine is term-limited.
What the polls say
| Poll | When | Acton | Ramaswamy |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/SSRS | 29 September – 5 October | 50% | 42% |
| New York Times/Siena | 22 September – 1 October | 49% | 45% |
| Suffolk University | Early October | 50% | 41% |
| co/efficient | 5–6 October | 43% | 45% |
Republicans point out that Democrats have tended to poll better in Ohio than they finished on election day, which is one reason the markets stop short of making Acton a heavier favourite.
What could still move the market
- Rallies and turnout: Trump campaigned with Ramaswamy and Senator Jon Husted in Youngstown on 12 October; Barack Obama is due to rally with Acton and Sherrod Brown in Cleveland on 24 October.
- The Senate race: Brown vs Husted is on the same ballot and one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country (Ohio Senate).
- Polling error: a 2020-style miss toward Republicans would make 23% for Ramaswamy look cheap.
To test your own estimate against the price, use the expected value calculator. Can Ohioans trade these markets? Is Kalshi legal in Ohio?.
Ohio governor odds: frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the Ohio governor race?
Amy Acton, at about 77% on Polymarket and Kalshi as of 21 October 2026.
When is the Ohio governor election?
3 November 2026.
What do the polls say?
Most early-October polls had Acton ahead, by 4 to 9 points; one co/efficient poll had Ramaswamy up 2.
Why isn't Mike DeWine running?
He is term-limited.
What are Vivek Ramaswamy's odds?
About 22% on Polymarket and 24% on Kalshi.
