Who will control the Senate?
Live odds on Senate control and all 35 races, from Polymarket and Kalshi.
Republicans hold the Senate 53–47 · odds updated 6 min ago
Which party wins the Senate
67% Democrats
Democratic chance on Polymarket, last 30 days
Expected seats after the election
Seats not on the ballot plus each party’s chance in every race
51.4
Democrats
48.2
Republicans
Independents: 0.4
- Democrats need
- 51 seats (net +4)
- Likely D pickups
- 5
- Likely R pickups
- 0
10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2026
Ranked by the chance the seat ends up with the other party, averaged across Polymarket and Kalshi.
- 1North Carolina SenateR → Dfavourite: Roy Cooper96%to flip
- 2Alaska SenateR → Dfavourite: Mary Peltola75%to flip
- 3Ohio Senate (special)R → Dfavourite: Sherrod Brown69%to flip
- 4Texas SenateR → Dfavourite: James Talarico65%to flip
- 5Maine SenateR → Dfavourite: Troy Jackson65%to flip
- 6Iowa SenateR → Dfavourite: Ashley Hinson42%to flip
- 7Kansas SenateR → Dfavourite: Roger Marshall39%to flip
- 8Michigan SenateD → Rfavourite: Abdul El-Sayed30%to flip
- 9Nebraska SenateR → Dfavourite: Pete Ricketts25%to flip
- 10South Carolina SenateR → Dfavourite: Darline Graham Nordone21%to flip
How many seats?
The seat-count markets: each bar is the chance a party ends up with that many seats.
Republican Senate seats
PolymarketDemocratic Senate seats
KalshiEvery 2026 Senate race
Closest races first. The favourite is the candidate with the highest average price; the flip chance is how likely the seat changes party.
- DEDelawareHeld by DemocratsDChris Coons—98%2%
- SCSouth CarolinaHeld by RepublicansRDarline Graham Nordone80%—21%
- LALouisianaHeld by RepublicansRAndy Barr—97%6%
- IAIowaHeld by RepublicansRAshley Hinson57%58%42%
- KSKansasHeld by RepublicansRRoger Marshall62%61%39%
- MEMaineHeld by RepublicansDTroy Jackson66%64%65%
- TXTexasHeld by RepublicansDJames Talarico66%64%65%
- OHOhio (special)Held by RepublicansDSherrod Brown70%68%69%
- MIMichiganHeld by DemocratsDAbdul El-Sayed72%68%30%
- NENebraskaHeld by RepublicansRPete Ricketts74%76%25%
- AKAlaskaHeld by RepublicansDMary Peltola75%75%75%
- MNMinnesotaHeld by DemocratsDPeggy Flanagan87%85%14%
- MSMississippiHeld by RepublicansRCindy Hyde-Smith87%88%12%
- NHNew HampshireHeld by DemocratsDChris Pappas92%89%10%
- FLFlorida (special)Held by RepublicansRAshley Moody92%91%9%
- MTMontanaHeld by RepublicansRKurt Alme93%92%8%
- SDSouth DakotaHeld by RepublicansRMike Rounds95%94%5%
- ARArkansasHeld by RepublicansRTom Cotton95%95%5%
- GAGeorgiaHeld by DemocratsDJon Ossoff96%96%4%
- IDIdahoHeld by RepublicansRJim Risch97%95%4%
- TNTennesseeHeld by RepublicansRBill Hagerty96%96%4%
- NCNorth CarolinaHeld by RepublicansDRoy Cooper97%96%96%
- NMNew MexicoHeld by DemocratsDBen Ray Luján97%96%3%
- NJNew JerseyHeld by DemocratsDCory Booker—97%3%
- KYKentuckyHeld by RepublicansRAndy Barr97%—3%
- OKOklahomaHeld by RepublicansRKevin Hern98%97%2%
- WVWest VirginiaHeld by RepublicansRShelley Moore Capito—98%2%
- OROregonHeld by DemocratsDJeff Merkley—98%2%
- ALAlabamaHeld by RepublicansRBarry Moore—98%2%
- ILIllinoisHeld by DemocratsDJuliana Stratton98%98%2%
- VAVirginiaHeld by DemocratsDMark Warner98%98%2%
- MAMassachusettsHeld by DemocratsDEd Markey98%98%2%
- RIRhode IslandHeld by DemocratsDJack Reed98%99%1%
- WYWyomingHeld by RepublicansRHarriet Hageman—99%1%
- COColoradoHeld by DemocratsDJohn Hickenlooper99%99%1%
Odds come from the platforms’ public data and refresh about every 10 minutes. Comparing the two platforms? Read Kalshi vs Polymarket. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Can Democrats flip the Senate in 2026?
Republicans hold the Senate 53–47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51, since the vice president breaks ties for Republicans. Prediction markets put their chance at about 67%.
Which Senate seats are most likely to flip in 2026?
By market odds, the seats most likely to change party are North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio. The full ranking is on this page and updates every 10 minutes.
How many Senate seats are up in 2026?
35: the 33 regular seats of Class II plus special elections in Ohio and Florida. Republicans defend 22 of them and Democrats 13.
How are expected seats calculated?
We add the seats not on the ballot to each party’s chance of winning every race, averaged across Polymarket and Kalshi. It is an estimate of the average outcome, not a forecast of the most likely exact number.
What is the difference between Polymarket and Kalshi odds?
They are separate markets with separate traders, so prices differ by a few points. Both are shown for every race; for how the platforms compare on fees and rules, see our Kalshi vs Polymarket guide.