Kansas Senate race 2026 odds: Marshall vs Hamilton
Prediction markets make Roger Marshall (R) the favourite in the Kansas Senate race, at 62% on Polymarket and 60% on Kalshi. Republicans currently hold it, and markets give about a 39% chance it changes hands.
Odds updated just now · election day November 3
RRoger Marshall
61%
Polymarket 62% · Kalshi 60%
DAdam Hamilton
39%
Polymarket 39% · Kalshi 40%
Democrats 39%Republicans 61%
Race facts
- Office
- U.S. Senate
- Held by
- Republicans
- Chance it flips
- 39%
- Platforms disagree by
- 1 pts
- Election day
- Nov 3, 2026
All candidates
Each platform’s price, scaled so its candidates add up to 100%, and the average.
- RRoger Marshall62%60%61%
- DAdam Hamilton39%40%39%
More 2026 races
All 2026 races: Senate · governors · overview. How the odds work: how prediction markets work. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Roger Marshall (Republican), at 61% on average across Polymarket (62%) and Kalshi (60%).
Which party holds the seat now?
Republicans. Markets give about a 39% chance it changes party in November.
When is the election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 11 days from now. The markets resolve once the race is called or certified, according to each platform’s rules.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different odds?
They are separate exchanges with different traders and fees, so the same candidate can trade a few points apart. When the gap is large, buying on the cheaper side can be an opportunity, as explained in our arbitrage guide.