South Carolina Senate race 2026 odds: Nordone vs Graham
Prediction markets make Darline Graham Nordone (R) the favourite in the South Carolina Senate race, at 81% on Polymarket. That makes it one of the closest races on the map.
Odds updated 3 min ago · election day November 3
RDarline Graham Nordone
81%
Polymarket 81% · Kalshi —
RDarline Graham
78%
Polymarket — · Kalshi 78%
Democrats 21%Republicans 79%
Race facts
- Office
- U.S. Senate
- Held by
- Republicans
- Chance it flips
- 21%
- Platforms disagree by
- —
- Election day
- Nov 3, 2026
All candidates
Each platform’s price, scaled so its candidates add up to 100%, and the average.
- RDarline Graham Nordone81%—81%
- RDarline Graham—78%78%
- DAnnie Andrews20%22%21%
Other Senate races to watch
All 2026 races: Senate · governors · overview. How the odds work: how prediction markets work. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Darline Graham Nordone (Republican), at 81% on average across Polymarket (81%) and Kalshi (—).
Which party holds the seat now?
Republicans. Markets give about a 21% chance it changes party in November.
When is the election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 11 days from now. The markets resolve once the race is called or certified, according to each platform’s rules.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different odds?
They are separate exchanges with different traders and fees, so the same candidate can trade a few points apart. When the gap is large, buying on the cheaper side can be an opportunity, as explained in our arbitrage guide.