Texas Senate race 2026 odds: Talarico vs Paxton
Prediction markets make James Talarico (D) the favourite in the Texas Senate race, at 66% on Polymarket and 64% on Kalshi. A win would flip the seat from Republicans to Democrats.
Odds updated just now · election day November 3
DJames Talarico
65%
Polymarket 66% · Kalshi 64%
RKen Paxton
35%
Polymarket 35% · Kalshi 36%
Democrats 65%Republicans 35%
Race facts
- Office
- U.S. Senate
- Held by
- Republicans
- Chance it flips
- 65%
- Platforms disagree by
- 1 pts
- Election day
- Nov 3, 2026
All candidates
Each platform’s price, scaled so its candidates add up to 100%, and the average.
- DJames Talarico66%64%65%
- RKen Paxton35%36%35%
More 2026 races
All 2026 races: Senate · governors · overview. How the odds work: how prediction markets work. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
James Talarico (Democratic), at 65% on average across Polymarket (66%) and Kalshi (64%).
Which party holds the seat now?
Republicans. Markets give about a 65% chance it changes party in November.
When is the election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 11 days from now. The markets resolve once the race is called or certified, according to each platform’s rules.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different odds?
They are separate exchanges with different traders and fees, so the same candidate can trade a few points apart. When the gap is large, buying on the cheaper side can be an opportunity, as explained in our arbitrage guide.