Michigan Senate race 2026 odds: El-Sayed vs Rogers
Prediction markets make Abdul El-Sayed (D) the favourite in the Michigan Senate race, at 72% on Polymarket and 68% on Kalshi. Democrats currently hold it, and markets give about a 30% chance it changes hands.
Odds updated 4 min ago · election day November 3
DAbdul El-Sayed
70%
Polymarket 72% · Kalshi 68%
RMike Rogers
30%
Polymarket 28% · Kalshi 32%
Democrats 70%Republicans 30%
Race facts
- Office
- U.S. Senate
- Held by
- Democrats
- Chance it flips
- 30%
- Platforms disagree by
- 3 pts
- Election day
- Nov 3, 2026
All candidates
Each platform’s price, scaled so its candidates add up to 100%, and the average.
- DAbdul El-Sayed72%68%70%
- RMike Rogers28%32%30%
More 2026 races
All 2026 races: Senate · governors · overview. How the odds work: how prediction markets work. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Abdul El-Sayed (Democratic), at 70% on average across Polymarket (72%) and Kalshi (68%).
Which party holds the seat now?
Democrats. Markets give about a 30% chance it changes party in November.
When is the election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 11 days from now. The markets resolve once the race is called or certified, according to each platform’s rules.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different odds?
They are separate exchanges with different traders and fees, so the same candidate can trade a few points apart. When the gap is large, buying on the cheaper side can be an opportunity, as explained in our arbitrage guide.