Minnesota Senate race 2026 odds: Flanagan vs Tafoya
Prediction markets make Peggy Flanagan (D) the favourite in the Minnesota Senate race, at 87% on Polymarket and 85% on Kalshi.
Odds updated just now · election day November 3
DPeggy Flanagan
86%
Polymarket 87% · Kalshi 85%
RMichele Tafoya
14%
Polymarket 13% · Kalshi 15%
Democrats 86%Republicans 14%
Race facts
- Office
- U.S. Senate
- Held by
- Democrats
- Chance it flips
- 14%
- Platforms disagree by
- 2 pts
- Election day
- Nov 3, 2026
All candidates
Each platform’s price, scaled so its candidates add up to 100%, and the average.
- DPeggy Flanagan87%85%86%
- RMichele Tafoya13%15%14%
Other Senate races to watch
All 2026 races: Senate · governors · overview. How the odds work: how prediction markets work. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?
Peggy Flanagan (Democratic), at 86% on average across Polymarket (87%) and Kalshi (85%).
Which party holds the seat now?
Democrats. Markets give about a 14% chance it changes party in November.
When is the election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 11 days from now. The markets resolve once the race is called or certified, according to each platform’s rules.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different odds?
They are separate exchanges with different traders and fees, so the same candidate can trade a few points apart. When the gap is large, buying on the cheaper side can be an opportunity, as explained in our arbitrage guide.