California governor race odds: Becerra vs Hilton on Polymarket and Kalshi
Prediction markets give Xavier Becerra about a 96% chance of beating Steve Hilton for California governor on 3 November. The odds on both platforms, the margin markets, the polls, and how to think about a 96% favourite.
In this article
Xavier Becerra is a heavy favourite to become California's next governor. Polymarket gives the Democrat about a 96.5% chance and Kalshi about 96%, against about 3–4% for Republican Steve Hilton. The election is on 3 November 2026.
The markets agree with the polls: the latest Emerson College survey had Becerra ahead by 27 points.
Prices as of 21 October 2026. Odds move daily; see the live markets below.
California governor odds today
| Candidate | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Xavier Becerra (Democrat) | 96.5% | 96.3% (bid 96.3¢, ask 96.4¢) |
| Steve Hilton (Republican) | 3.3% | 3.7% |
This is one of the most heavily traded state races of the year: more than $42 million on Polymarket's winner market, and more than 20 million contracts on Kalshi.
Live prices: California governor on Polymarket · California governor on Kalshi.
How big will Becerra win?
Polymarket's margin-of-victory market expects a landslide. As of 21 October:
| Becerra's margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| 25–30 points | 33.5% |
| 20–25 points | 32% |
| 15–20 points | 20.5% |
| 10–15 points | 5.5% |
| 0–10 points | 4% |
The candidates
- Xavier Becerra, a former California attorney general and former US health secretary.
- Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host and former adviser to UK Prime Minister David Cameron.
Governor Gavin Newsom is term-limited. California uses a top-two primary, and on 2 June 2026 Becerra (27.98%) and Hilton (24.59%) finished first and second in a crowded field that included Katie Porter and Antonio Villaraigosa.
What the polls say
| Poll | When | Becerra | Hilton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 17–19 October | 60% | 33% |
| ActiVote | 16 October | 62.8% | 37.2% |
| UC Berkeley IGS | September | Ahead by 25 | — |
| UC Berkeley IGS | August | Ahead by 18 | — |
Emerson found Becerra winning independents 46% to 36%. Republicans have not won a California governor's race since 2006.
How to read a 96% favourite
- 96% is not 100%. A 96% favourite still loses about one time in 25.
- Long shots tend to be slightly overpriced. Some traders pay for lottery-ticket payoffs, so a 3–4% price on Hilton may overstate his chance (are prediction markets accurate?).
- The "safe" side pays little. Buying Becerra at 96.4¢ earns about 3.7% in two weeks if he wins, and loses almost everything if he does not. Whether that is worth it depends on your own probability; the expected value calculator does the sums, fees included.
For more competitive races on the same ballot: LA mayor race odds · 2026 governor races · 2026 Senate odds.
Can Californians trade this market?
Yes, on Kalshi, and on Polymarket US where available. The global Polymarket site does not accept US users. California's own rules for prediction markets, including the 2026 tribal-land ruling: is Kalshi legal in California?.
California governor odds: frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the California governor race?
Xavier Becerra, with about a 96% chance on Polymarket and Kalshi as of 21 October 2026.
Who is running for California governor in 2026?
Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton, the top two from the June primary.
When is the California governor election?
3 November 2026.
What do the polls say?
Emerson's 17–19 October poll had Becerra at 60% and Hilton at 33%.
Why isn't Gavin Newsom running?
He is term-limited after two terms.
