California Governor Election Winner
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 00:23 UTCCloses 4 Nov 2026 (in 11 days)
Most likely: Xavier Becerra
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Xavier Becerra | 97% | ▼ 0.1 pts |
Steve Hilton | 3% | ▲ 0.2 pts |
Rick Caruso | <1% | — |
Alex Padilla | <1% | — |
Katie Porter | <1% | — |
Antonio Villaraigosa | <1% | — |
Stephen Cloobeck | <1% | — |
Butch Ware | <1% | — |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “California Governor Election Winner”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price Xavier Becerra as the most likely outcome at 97% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 4 Nov 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.