Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 23:40 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)
Chance of “Yes”
Outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | — |
No | 97% | — |
How this market resolves
If there is at least an earthquake of 8 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price “Yes” at 3% (as of 23 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
More climate & weather markets
- KalshiWhere will it rain on Oct 23, 2026?99%Albuquerque
- KalshiHighest temperature in New York City on Oct 23, 2026?73%59° to 60°
- KalshiHighest temperature in Miami on Oct 23, 2026?54%81° to 82°
- KalshiHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 23, 2026?67%71° to 72°
- KalshiWhere will it rain on Oct 24, 2026?86%Albuquerque
- KalshiHighest temperature in Chicago on Oct 23, 2026?71%71° to 72°
Latest climate & weather news
- Tinned mackerel, hand-crank radios and bags for poo: crisis-prepping guides around the world23 Oct 2026
- Martin Rowson on the approval of the Jackdaw gasfield – cartoon23 Oct 2026
- The US west has lost nearly 300 glaciers since the 1960s. Climate crisis is drastically shrinking what’s left23 Oct 2026
- At Cop17, the pressure is on to rescue a deal that could end the destruction of nature23 Oct 2026
Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.