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Polymarket

Lowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30?

Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 23:41 UTCCloses 2 Dec 2026 (in 39 days)

Most likely: 4.00 to 4.99 ft

34%▲ 4.5 pts in 24h
Price over the last 7 days, in %
50%29%9%

All outcomes (5)

OutcomeChance24h
4.00 to 4.99 ft
34%▲ 4.5 pts
6.00 ft or more
25%▼ 7.6 pts
5.00 to 5.99 ft
24%▼ 8.0 pts
3.00 to 3.99 ft
5%▼ 0.4 pts
Below 3.00 ft
2%—

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean gage height (river level), in feet, recorded at the Mississippi River at Baton Rouge, LA streamgage (USGS site 07374000) between market creation and November 30, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 00065 under statistic code 00003 (daily mean). The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published. USGS reports gage height to 2 decimal places, and this is the precision used to resolve this market. Each range includes both of its stated bounds and consecutive ranges are contiguous, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4.00 ft resolves the range beginning at 4.00 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No". The resolution source is the USGS Daily Values service for site 07374000, available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07374000&parameterCd=00065&statCd=00003&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered. If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 3.00 ft".

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Lowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price 4.00 to 4.99 ft as the most likely outcome at 34% (as of 23 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 2 Dec 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.