
When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 23:40 UTCCloses 1 Nov 2026 (in 9 days)
Most likely: October 1 - 31, 2026
All outcomes (2)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
October 1 - 31, 2026 | 70% | ▲ 12.5 pts |
No return before November 1, 2026 | 31% | ▼ 10.0 pts |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “When will the Rhine River return to normal levels”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price October 1 - 31, 2026 as the most likely outcome at 70% (as of 23 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Nov 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
More climate & weather markets
- KalshiWhere will it rain on Oct 23, 2026?99%Albuquerque
- KalshiHighest temperature in New York City on Oct 23, 2026?73%59° to 60°
- KalshiHighest temperature in Miami on Oct 23, 2026?54%81° to 82°
- KalshiHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 23, 2026?67%71° to 72°
- KalshiWhere will it rain on Oct 24, 2026?86%Albuquerque
- KalshiHighest temperature in Chicago on Oct 23, 2026?71%71° to 72°
Latest climate & weather news
- Tinned mackerel, hand-crank radios and bags for poo: crisis-prepping guides around the world23 Oct 2026
- Martin Rowson on the approval of the Jackdaw gasfield – cartoon23 Oct 2026
- The US west has lost nearly 300 glaciers since the 1960s. Climate crisis is drastically shrinking what’s left23 Oct 2026
- At Cop17, the pressure is on to rescue a deal that could end the destruction of nature23 Oct 2026
Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.