Will Variational launch a token by ___ ?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 04:35 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)
Most likely: December 31, 2026
All outcomes (3)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
December 31, 2026 | 80% | ▼ 2.1 pts |
November 30, 2026 | 31% | ▼ 2.0 pts |
October 31, 2026 | 2% | ▼ 0.4 pts |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Variational officially launches a governance token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Variational (https://x.com/variational_io), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Variational launch a token by ___ ”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price December 31, 2026 as the most likely outcome at 80% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.