Manifold Markets explained: how the play-money prediction market works, and how it compares with Polymarket and Kalshi
Manifold is a free prediction market that runs on play money called mana. How mana works, who creates and resolves markets, what sweepcash was, how accurate play money turns out to be, and when Manifold beats Polymarket or Kalshi.
In this article
Manifold Markets is a free prediction market where you trade with play money called mana (M$). Anyone can create a market on any question, from elections to AI timelines to whether a friend will finish a marathon. You cannot withdraw mana as cash, so Manifold is not a place to make money, but it is one of the best places to practise forecasting and to find markets on questions no real-money platform lists.
Manifold at a glance
| Manifold Markets | |
|---|---|
| Launched | 2021, by Austin Chen and James and Stephen Grugett |
| Currency | Mana (M$), play money; cannot be cashed out |
| Who creates markets | Any user |
| Who resolves markets | Usually the creator, with moderators for disputes |
| Pricing | An automated market maker plus limit orders |
| Cost | Free; mana can be bought but not sold back |
How mana works
You get mana when you sign up and earn more by trading well, creating popular markets and other activity. You can also buy mana with real money, but you cannot cash it out. Manifold has at times let users direct mana to charities.
Between 2024 and 2025 Manifold experimented with a sweepstakes-style currency, sweepcash, that could be redeemed for real money. It shut that down in March 2025 and returned to play money only.
How trading works
Each market has a probability, like a price on a real-money market. Buying "Yes" pushes it up and buying "No" pushes it down. Manifold uses an automated market maker, a formula that always quotes a price, so you can trade even when nobody else is online. Bigger trades move the price more. You can also place limit orders at a chosen probability.
Market types include yes/no questions, multiple choice, numeric ranges and polls.
Who resolves Manifold markets?
Usually the creator. That is Manifold's biggest difference from Kalshi and Polymarket, where the exchange or an oracle decides (how Kalshi and Polymarket markets resolve). Most creators resolve honestly, and moderators step in on disputes, but check a creator's history before putting a lot of mana into a market with vague rules.
Is play money accurate?
Better than you might expect. Manifold publishes a calibration chart for its markets, and play-money markets with active traders tend to be reasonably calibrated: things priced at 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. Without real money at stake, though, there is less incentive to correct obvious mispricings on quiet markets, and some markets are more about fun than forecasting. How accuracy is measured: Brier score.
Manifold vs Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Metaculus
| Manifold | Polymarket | Kalshi | Metaculus | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real money | No (mana) | Yes | Yes | No |
| Who lists questions | Anyone | Polymarket | Kalshi | Metaculus and its community |
| How prices form | Market (AMM + limit orders) | Order book | Order book | Aggregated forecasts, no trading |
| Resolution | Usually the creator | UMA oracle | Kalshi | Metaculus admins |
| Best for | Practice, niche and personal questions | Deep markets on world events | Regulated US trading | Long-range questions, scored forecasting |
More about the forecasting-site alternative: what is Metaculus. Real-money alternatives to Polymarket: Polymarket alternatives.
When to use Manifold
- To practise before risking real money: build a track record and see whether your 70% calls come true.
- For questions nobody else lists: niche tech, science, community and personal questions.
- To ask the crowd: create a market and see what people think, with comments explaining why.
Manifold Markets: frequently asked questions
Is Manifold Markets real money?
No. It uses mana, a play currency you cannot withdraw. A short-lived real-money option, sweepcash, ended in March 2025.
Can you cash out mana?
No. You can buy mana, and Manifold has at times allowed donations to charity, but mana cannot be turned back into cash.
Is Manifold legit?
Yes, as a free forecasting site. Just remember that creators resolve their own markets, so read the rules.
Is Manifold better than Polymarket?
They do different jobs. Polymarket has real money and deep markets; Manifold is free, open to any question, and good for practice.
