Recession this year?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 01:01 UTCCloses 31 Jan 2027 (in 3 mo)
Chance of “Yes”
Outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Yes | 4% | — |
No | 96% | — |
How this market resolves
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Recession this year”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price “Yes” at 4% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 31 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.