Economy odds

Fed decisions, inflation, jobs and recession odds. Live prices from Polymarket and Kalshi, most traded first.

• KalshiFed decision in Oct 2026?93%Fed maintains rate
• KalshiUS gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.2550
• KalshiUS gas prices this week99%Above 4.1000
• KalshiNumber of rate cuts in 2026?94%Exactly 0 cuts
• KalshiNasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?11%30,500 to 30,999.99
• KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?90%Before Feb 1, 2027
• KalshiWisconsin gas prices tomorrow>99%Above 4.2850
• KalshiOhio gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.3350
• KalshiS&P close price end of 2026?24%7,800 to 7,999.99
• PolymarketHow low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?63%Below 4.70%
• KalshiMichigan gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.7250
• KalshiGas prices in the US in Oct 2026?99%Above 2.50
• PolymarketAnthropic IPO by __?82%December 31, 2026
• KalshiCore CPI YoY in November99%Above 2.0%
• KalshiIllinois gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.7700
• PolymarketAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?78%Yes
• KalshiUS Treasury cash balance on October 23, 202697%Above $925 billion
• KalshiNew Jersey gas price at year-end 202682%Above 3.9000
• KalshiHow high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?39%$115.01 or above
• KalshiNorth Dakota gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.0850
• KalshiColorado gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.2400
• KalshiBank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?81%Hike 25bps
• KalshiIndiana gas prices tomorrow99%Above 3.9400
• KalshiVerizon postpaid phone net additions in Q394%Above 25 thousand
• PolymarketCrude Oil all time high by...?24%March 31, 2027
• PolymarketHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?70%2 (50 bps)
• KalshiFed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?99%Above 2.75%
• KalshiMississippi gas prices tomorrow99%Above 3.8200
• KalshiCoors Light Point of Sale Growth in October99%Above 85
• KalshiMissouri gas prices tomorrow>99%Above 3.9050
• KalshiWest Virginia gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.1850
• KalshiCPI in October98%Above -0.1%
• KalshiFed decision in Dec 2026?72%Hike 25bps
• KalshiDelaware gas prices tomorrow99%Above 3.8900
• KalshiConnecticut gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.2750
• KalshiPeacock App Downloads in October99%Above 60
• PolymarketHow low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?66%Below 5.25%
• PolymarketHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?96%0 (0 bps)
• KalshiHow high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?5%Above 91,500 MW
• KalshiMiller Lite Point of Sale Growth in October98%Above 80
• KalshiSOFR at end of Q4 202699%Above 3.00%
• KalshiAlaska diesel prices in Oct 202690%Above $6.0000
• KalshiHow low will US gas prices get in Oct 2026?36%Below $4.25
• KalshiPepsi Point of Sale Growth in October98%Above 91
• KalshiWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?5%Before February 2027
• KalshiNew York gas prices tomorrow>99%Above 4.3550
• KalshiGemini App Downloads in October 202699%Above 35
• KalshiVermont gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.3250
• KalshiDiesel price on Election Day99%Above $4.40
• KalshiOregon gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.8500
• KalshiNorth Carolina gas prices tomorrow99%Above 3.4900
• KalshiDiesel prices in Oct 202699%Above $5.50
• KalshiSouth Carolina gas prices tomorrow93%Above 3.7900
• Kalshi30-year mortgage rate this week77%Above 7.22%
• KalshiUS refinery utilization in November85%Above 94%
• KalshiSouth Africa unemployment rate in Q398%Above 31.0%
• KalshiFear & Greed Index on Oct 23, 2026?89%Extreme Fear
• KalshiZyn Point of Sale Growth in October97%Above 94
• KalshiIBOVESPA closing level on Oct 26, 202687%At least 215,000 points
• PolymarketHow high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?95%4.80%