Geopolitics odds
Conflicts, diplomacy, sanctions and world leaders. Live prices from Polymarket and Kalshi, most traded first.
- PolymarketRussia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?>99%December 31
- PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?94%October 24
- PolymarketIran full airspace closure by...?46%December 31
- PolymarketKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?9%December 31
- PolymarketUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?14%December 31
- PolymarketXi Jinping out before 2027?3%Yes
- PolymarketWill Russia target Kyiv on...?86%October 28
- PolymarketAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?82%25-29
- PolymarketSaudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?87%October 16
- PolymarketWill Ukraine target Moscow on...?70%October 29
- PolymarketMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?14%December 31
- PolymarketMohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?7%Yes
- PolymarketWill Russia capture Vodianske by...?52%Yes
- PolymarketUS military action against Cuba by...?9%Yes
- PolymarketWhich countries will recognize Israel by December 31?9%Venezuela
- PolymarketAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?93%0-5
- PolymarketSaudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?31%December 31
- PolymarketWill Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?11%December 31
- PolymarketChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?23%Yes
- PolymarketHouthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?99%October 5
- PolymarketChina x Japan military clash before 2027?4%Yes
- PolymarketIsrael x Turkey military clash before 2027?10%Yes
- PolymarketHow many UKMTO notices October 26–November 1?39%8-11
- PolymarketIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?33%December 31, 2027
- PolymarketWill Russia enter Bilozerske by...?47%December 31
- PolymarketWill Russia capture Dobropillia by...?38%March 31, 2027
- PolymarketUSS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...?95%November 30
- PolymarketWill Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?25%Yes
- PolymarketWhich cities will Russia enter by December 31?28%Druzkhivka
- PolymarketWill Russia capture all of Bilytske by...?62%Yes
- PolymarketWill Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?8%Yes
- PolymarketEritrea invades Ethiopia by...?16%December 31
- PolymarketHow many UKMTO notices October 19–25?75%<8
- PolymarketIsrael military action against Lebanon on...?>99%October 23
- PolymarketShipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?85%October 22
- KalshiWill a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?19%Yes
- PolymarketHouthis seize an oil tanker by...?6%Yes
- PolymarketTurkey military action against Yemen by...?9%December 31
- PolymarketIsrael ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?14%Yes
- PolymarketIsrael military action against Syria by...?38%November 30
- PolymarketFrance, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by...?7%December 31
- PolymarketWill Russia capture Stavky by...?7%Yes
- PolymarketWill Russia capture Kupiansk by...?8%Yes
- PolymarketIsrael military action against Beirut by...?10%Yes
- PolymarketWill China blockade Taiwan in 2026?2%Yes
- PolymarketPakistan military action against Yemen by...?12%December 31
- PolymarketIran charges Hormuz fees by...?16%December 31
- PolymarketWho will visit Ukraine by December 31?67%Ursula von der Leyen
- PolymarketWill Iran target Jordan by...?36%Yes
- KalshiWhat will Sam Altman say during NYT DealBook Summit?81%Safe / Safer / Safety
- PolymarketPutin meets with Iranian officials by...?93%December 31
- KalshiWhat will JD Vance say during NYT DealBook Summit?75%Economy / Economic
- KalshiWhat will Mamdani say during NYT DealBook Summit?81%Afford / Affordable / Affordability
- KalshiWhat will Vlad Tenev say during NYT DealBook Summit?78%AI / Artificial Intelligence
- KalshiWhat will Elon Musk say during NYT DealBook Summit?75%AI / Artificial Intelligence
- KalshiWhat will Hailey Bieber say during NYT DealBook Summit?79%Rhode