Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 23:41 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)
Most likely: Ursula von der Leyen
All outcomes (7)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Ursula von der Leyen | 68% | ▲ 1.5 pts |
Mark Rutte | 42% | ▼ 12.0 pts |
António Guterres | 12% | — |
Emmanuel Macron | 12% | ▲ 1.0 pts |
Mark Carney | 11% | ▲ 1.5 pts |
JD Vance | 6% | ▲ 0.7 pts |
Donald Trump | 3% | ▼ 0.1 pts |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Who will visit Ukraine by December 31”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price Ursula von der Leyen as the most likely outcome at 68% (as of 23 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.