Tech & AI odds
AI model launches, big tech and science. Live prices from Polymarket and Kalshi, most traded first.
- KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?4%Before Jan 1, 2027
- KalshiGoogle market share this week99%Above 16.6%
- PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?94%December 31
- KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?50%Claude
- PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?75%No release by October 31
- KalshiOpenAI market share this week99%Above 14.7%
- KalshiMeta market share this week4%Above 2.2%
- KalshiDeepSeek market share this week99%Above 22.7%
- KalshiBest AI in Oct 2026?86%Gemini
- KalshiHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?99%Above 6
- KalshiAnthropic market share this week99%Above 3.7%
- KalshiOpenRouter token usage in Oct 19–2599%Above 156T tokens
- KalshiBest AI this week97%Gemini
- PolymarketNext GPT Terra (5.7+) released on...?20%No release by November 30
- KalshiWhich countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?57%Central African Republic
- KalshiWhere will Waymo operate in 2026?94%Denver, CO
- PolymarketWhen will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released?17%October 26–November 1
- PolymarketWho will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?23%Saudi Arabia
- PolymarketAnother critical PHP security flaw in 2026?37%Yes
- KalshiMoonshot AI share of spend on Oct 26, 2026 (Vercel)80%Above 3.9%
- PolymarketWho will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?97%Anthropic
- KalshiWhen will OpenAI release a personal AI agent?28%Before Jan 1, 2027
- PolymarketGPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?84%December 31
- PolymarketHow many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?81%0
- PolymarketWhen will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?19%November 9–November 15
- PolymarketWill Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?97%Yes
- KalshiHow many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?99%Above 120
- PolymarketHighest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?88%45%+
- KalshiTop Chinese AI Company week of October 26th70%Xiaomi
- PolymarketWhen will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?96%No release by November 1
- KalshiSpaceX Starship 15th launch?94%Before Dec 11, 2026
- KalshiMeasles cases in 2026?99%Above 5000
- KalshiHow many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?46%4
- KalshiWhen will Anthropic release a personal AI agent?48%Before Jan 1, 2027
- KalshiWhen will Anthropic release Mythos?8%Before Jan 1, 2027
- PolymarketHighest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?62%58%+
- PolymarketWill a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?22%#3
- KalshiWhich companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?15%OpenAI
- PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?26%45%+
- PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?32%1470+
- KalshiWill a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?7%Before January 1, 2027
- KalshiEbola pandemic in 2026?3%Yes
- PolymarketOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?9%Yes
- PolymarketWill OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?8%Yes
- PolymarketNext Grok Model (4.8+) released by...?64%November 30
- PolymarketSSI public model released by…?40%December 31
- KalshiWhat kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?8%Clip-on device for clothing
- KalshiNext Gemini Pro model release6%Before Nov 16, 2026
- PolymarketTop 5 Most Searched People on Google in the US 202677%Lindsay Clancy
- KalshiConfirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?5%2 or more
- KalshiWhen will OpenAI achieve AGI?4%Yes
- PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?16%December 31
- PolymarketNext Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?93%No release by October 31
- KalshiWhen will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?25%Before 2027
- KalshiHow many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?31%Above 0
- KalshiTop AI model this month91%gemini-4-argon-high
- PolymarketOpenAI resumes training by...?16%Yes
- PolymarketHighest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?32%60%+
- PolymarketHighest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?71%42%+
- PolymarketOpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?78%November 15