Measles cases in 2026?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 03:14 UTCCloses 13 Oct 2026 (closing)
Most likely: Above 3000
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Above 3000 | 99% | — |
Above 4000 | 99% | — |
Above 5000 | 99% | — |
Above 6000 | 84% | — |
Above 7000 | 53% | ▼ 17.0 pts |
Above 8000 | 25% | ▼ 9.0 pts |
Above 9000 | 21% | ▼ 7.0 pts |
Above 10000 | 9% | ▼ 2.0 pts |
How this market resolves
If the number of measles in 2026 is above 3000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Measles cases in 2026”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Above 3000 as the most likely outcome at 99% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 13 Oct 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.