
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 05:08 UTCCloses 31 Dec 2026 (in 2 mo)
Most likely: December 31
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
December 31 | 93% | ▼ 3.5 pts |
October 31 | 23% | ▼ 11.2 pts |
October 30 | 23% | ▼ 10.0 pts |
October 29 | 22% | ▼ 12.0 pts |
October 28 | 20% | ▼ 8.5 pts |
October 27 | 18% | ▼ 2.5 pts |
October 26 | 4% | ▼ 4.2 pts |
October 24 | <1% | ▼ 4.3 pts |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price December 31 as the most likely outcome at 93% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 31 Dec 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.