• Knicks vs. Celtics · Knicks vs. Celtics45¢
  • LoL: LOS vs T1 (BO1) - Worlds G… · Match Winner0¢▼ 12.4
  • NATO x Russia military clash by… · October 313¢▼ 13.7
  • Raptors vs. Wizards · Raptors vs. Wizards83¢▲ 14.0
  • Fed Decision in October · 25 bps increase7¢▲ 1.0
  • Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms · Republicans Sweep8¢
  • Fed Decision in October · No change93¢▼ 1.0
  • Timberwolves vs. Magic · Timberwolves vs. Magic78¢▲ 24.0
  • Pistons vs. Heat · Pistons vs. Heat77¢▲ 26.0
  • Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic… · October 31100¢▲ 33.0
  • Hawks vs. Hornets · Hawks vs. Hornets95¢▲ 39.0
  • Brazil Presidential Election · Flávio Bolsonaro77¢▲ 1.0
  • Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms · D Senate, R House1¢▲ 0.1
  • Mavericks vs. Pacers · Mavericks vs. Pacers96¢▲ 62.0
  • Which party will win the Senate… · Democratic Party68¢▼ 1.0
  • Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms · Democrats Sweep67¢▼ 2.0
  • Knicks vs. Celtics · Spread -2.548¢▼ 1.5
  • Fed Decision in October · 25 bps decrease0¢▼ 0.1
Polymarket

Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?

Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 00:23 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)

Most likely: Anthropic

97%▲ 0.1 pts in 24h
Price over the last 7 days, in %
98%63%28%

All outcomes (4)

OutcomeChance24h
Anthropic
97%▲ 0.1 pts
Microsoft
40%▲ 1.5 pts
Perplexity
24%—
Amazon
9%—

How this market resolves

On September 8, 2026, Meta launched Muse, a personal AI agent that runs on a cloud computer dedicated to each user and carries out tasks, such as sending email and booking travel (https://about.fb.com/news/2026/09/introducing-muse-personal-ai-agent/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company launches a Muse-like personal agent by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Muse-like personal agent is an AI agent that runs on a cloud computer provided by the listed company that is dedicated to the individual user and remains assigned to that user between tasks, can begin tasks on its own, such as on a schedule or when a new email arrives, and can take actions on websites or in the user's connected accounts, such as sending email or submitting forms. Computing environments created for each task or session will not qualify. Products limited to a single type of task, such as coding, software development, email, or travel booking, offered only through an API, or sold only to businesses will not qualify. A Muse-like personal agent must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. Availability limited to paid subscription plans or to certain countries will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price Anthropic as the most likely outcome at 97% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

More tech & ai markets

Latest tech & ai news

Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.