Fed decision in Dec 2026?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 23:39 UTCCloses 9 Dec 2026 (in 47 days)
Most likely: Hike 25bps
All outcomes (5)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Hike 25bps | 72% | ▼ 1.0 pts |
Fed maintains rate | 24% | ▼ 1.0 pts |
Hike >25bps | 5% | ▲ 1.0 pts |
Cut 25bps | 2% | ▲ 1.0 pts |
Cut >25bps | 1% | — |
How this market resolves
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Fed decision in Dec 2026”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Hike 25bps as the most likely outcome at 72% (as of 23 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 9 Dec 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.