How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 01:01 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)
Most likely: Above 91,500 MW
All outcomes (7)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Above 91,500 MW | 6% | ▲ 1.0 pts |
Above 92,000 MW | 4% | — |
Above 92,500 MW | 4% | — |
Above 93,000 MW | 3% | — |
Above 94,000 MW | 3% | — |
Above 96,000 MW | 3% | — |
Above 98,000 MW | 2% | ▲ 1.0 pts |
How this market resolves
If ERCOT reports that the integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during calendar year 2026 is above 91,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Above 91,500 MW as the most likely outcome at 6% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.