Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 22:22 UTCCloses 31 Dec 2026 (in 2 mo)
Most likely: Harry Kane
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Harry Kane | 76% | ▼ 2.0 pts |
Lamine Yamal | 15% | ▼ 2.0 pts |
Kylian Mbappe | 8% | ▲ 2.0 pts |
Lionel Messi | 2% | — |
Erling Haaland | 1% | — |
Declan Rice | 1% | — |
Vitinha | 1% | — |
Michael Olise | 1% | — |
How this market resolves
If Harry Kane wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Harry Kane as the most likely outcome at 76% (as of 23 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 31 Dec 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.