SOFR at end of Q4 2026
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 01:46 UTCCloses 4 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)
Most likely: Above 3.00%
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Above 3.00% | 99% | — |
Above 3.25% | 98% | — |
Above 3.50% | 98% | — |
Above 3.75% | 85% | — |
Above 4.00% | 64% | — |
Above 4.25% | 54% | — |
Above 4.50% | 7% | ▼ 3.0 pts |
Above 4.75% | 2% | ▲ 1.0 pts |
How this market resolves
If the first published SOFR value corresponding to the final U.S. business-day SOFR reference date for Q4 2026 is above 3.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “SOFR at end of Q4 2026”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Above 3.00% as the most likely outcome at 99% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 4 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.