When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 02:29 UTCCloses 1 Apr 2027 (in 5 mo)
Most likely: Before April 2027
All outcomes (5)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Before April 2027 | 86% | ▲ 1.0 pts |
Before March 2027 | 16% | — |
Before February 2027 | 5% | ▲ 2.0 pts |
Before 2027 | 4% | — |
Before October | 1% | — |
How this market resolves
If Apple Inc. releases iPhone 18 to the public before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “When will Apple release the iPhone 18”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Before April 2027 as the most likely outcome at 86% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Apr 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.