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Polymarket

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 05:26 UTCCloses 1 Nov 2026 (in 8 days)

Most likely: 25-29

77%▲ 5.5 pts in 24h
Price over the last 7 days, in %
82%69%56%

All outcomes (5)

OutcomeChance24h
25-29
77%▲ 5.5 pts
30-34
16%▲ 3.5 pts
20-24
5%▼ 4.5 pts
<20
1%▼ 3.9 pts
35+
<1%▼ 0.7 pts

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price 25-29 as the most likely outcome at 77% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 1 Nov 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.