Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 05:19 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)
Most likely: December 31, 2027
All outcomes (4)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
December 31, 2027 | 33% | — |
June 30, 2027 | 20% | ▼ 0.5 pts |
March 31, 2027 | 13% | — |
December 31 | 3% | ▼ 0.1 pts |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price December 31, 2027 as the most likely outcome at 33% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.