
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 05:27 UTCCloses 1 Nov 2026 (in 8 days)
Most likely: October 17
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
October 17 | 89% | ▲ 6.0 pts |
October 16 | 89% | ▲ 0.5 pts |
October 6 | 84% | ▲ 2.0 pts |
October 22 | 83% | ▲ 11.0 pts |
October 4 | 82% | ▲ 18.8 pts |
October 18 | 82% | ▼ 1.0 pts |
October 23 | 82% | ▲ 10.5 pts |
October 21 | 82% | ▲ 3.0 pts |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Saudi Arabia directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s mariti…
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price October 17 as the most likely outcome at 89% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Nov 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
More geopolitics markets
- PolymarketRussia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?>99%Yes
- PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?98%October 24
- PolymarketKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?9%December 31
- PolymarketIran full airspace closure by...?38%December 31
- PolymarketXi Jinping out before 2027?3%Yes
- PolymarketSaudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?19%December 31
Latest geopolitics news
- White House says Melania Trump brokers truce for Ukraine city 'on brink of disaster'23 Oct 2026
- Pentagon Bans Military Insider Trading on Polymarket, Kalshi After $400K Betting Scandal23 Oct 2026
- Will Russia target Kyiv on...? Trading Odds & Predictions 202623 Oct 2026
- Hundreds of flights cancelled as Typhoon Champi shuts Taiwan23 Oct 2026
Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.