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Polymarket

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 23:40 UTCCloses 1 Nov 2026 (in 8 days)

Most likely: October 22

90%▲ 18.0 pts in 24h
Price over the last 7 days, in %
90%59%28%

All outcomes (8)

OutcomeChance24h
October 22
90%▲ 18.0 pts
October 5
64%▼ 11.1 pts
October 11
63%—
October 24
62%▲ 20.0 pts
October 25
59%▲ 7.5 pts
October 4
56%▼ 12.3 pts
October 26
53%▲ 2.0 pts
October 28
50%▲ 0.5 pts

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea. No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from t…

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price October 22 as the most likely outcome at 90% (as of 23 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 1 Nov 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.