
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 23:40 UTCCloses 1 Nov 2026 (in 8 days)
Most likely: October 22
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
October 22 | 90% | ▲ 18.0 pts |
October 5 | 64% | ▼ 11.1 pts |
October 11 | 63% | — |
October 24 | 62% | ▲ 20.0 pts |
October 25 | 59% | ▲ 7.5 pts |
October 4 | 56% | ▼ 12.3 pts |
October 26 | 53% | ▲ 2.0 pts |
October 28 | 50% | ▲ 0.5 pts |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea. No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from t…
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price October 22 as the most likely outcome at 90% (as of 23 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Nov 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
More geopolitics markets
- PolymarketRussia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?>99%December 31
- PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?94%October 24
- PolymarketIran full airspace closure by...?46%December 31
- PolymarketKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?9%December 31
- PolymarketUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?14%December 31
- PolymarketXi Jinping out before 2027?3%Yes
Latest geopolitics news
- White House says Melania Trump brokers truce for Ukraine city 'on brink of disaster'23 Oct 2026
- Pentagon Bans Military Insider Trading on Polymarket, Kalshi After $400K Betting Scandal23 Oct 2026
- Will Russia target Kyiv on...? Trading Odds & Predictions 202623 Oct 2026
- Hundreds of flights cancelled as Typhoon Champi shuts Taiwan23 Oct 2026
Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.