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Polymarket

Turkey military action against Yemen by...?

Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 00:24 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)

Most likely: December 31

9%
Price over the last 7 days, in %
9%9%9%

All outcomes (2)

OutcomeChance24h
December 31
9%—
October 31
<1%—

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey takes a qualifying military action against Yemen between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Turkey, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Turkey. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Turkey directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yeme…

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Turkey military action against Yemen by...”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price December 31 as the most likely outcome at 9% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.