Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 02:31 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)
Most likely: Venezuela
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Venezuela | 9% | ▼ 1.0 pts |
Lebanon | 7% | — |
Indonesia | 7% | ▲ 2.0 pts |
Tunisia | 6% | — |
Saudi Arabia | 4% | ▼ 0.1 pts |
Iraq | 4% | ▲ 0.1 pts |
Pakistan | 4% | — |
Syria | 4% | ▲ 0.1 pts |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price Venezuela as the most likely outcome at 9% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.