
Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 05:45 UTCCloses 1 Feb 2027 (in 3 mo)
Most likely: Spider-Man: Brand New Day
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 52% | ▼ 1.5 pts |
Movie B | 50% | — |
Movie C | 50% | — |
Movie D | 50% | — |
Movie E | 50% | — |
Movie F | 50% | — |
Movie G | 50% | — |
Movie H | 50% | — |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price Spider-Man: Brand New Day as the most likely outcome at 52% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Feb 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
More culture markets
- KalshiThe Cat in the Hat · Rotten Tomatoes score88%Above 45
- PolymarketWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?1%Yes
- PolymarketNext James Bond actor?38%Jack Lowden
- KalshiBad Bunny Streams in 202699%Above 27B
- Polymarket"Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office53%10m-12m
- KalshiPro Football Championship Halftime Show: Headliner(s)83%JAY-Z
Latest culture news
- FilmQuest 2026 Launches With Explosive Motorcycle Drama ‘Whiskey Throttle’ as Rowdy Crowd Celebrates Utah-Made Film23 Oct 2026
- ‘Killing a Bear,’ From Movistar Plus and Arte France: a Real-Event Inspired Murder-Mystery Whose Victim Is a Pyrenean Brown Bear23 Oct 2026
- Did Karen Bass Expand Film Incentives? Nithya Raman Campaign Flags ‘Whopper’ Claim23 Oct 2026
- Sofia Coppola on Embracing an ‘Embarrassing’ Moment in New ‘Marie Antoinette’ Doc and Showing Strength on Sets Surrounded by Men23 Oct 2026
Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.