
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 23:40 UTCCloses 1 Feb 2027 (in 3 mo)
Most likely: Avengers: Doomsday
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Avengers: Doomsday | 53% | ▲ 0.5 pts |
Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 44% | ▼ 3.0 pts |
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping | <1% | — |
Dune: Messiah | <1% | — |
Movie B | — | — |
Movie C | — | — |
Movie D | — | — |
Movie E | — | — |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price Avengers: Doomsday as the most likely outcome at 53% (as of 23 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Feb 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.