Gemini prediction markets: how Gemini Predictions works and how it compares
The Winklevoss twins’ crypto exchange won a CFTC exchange licence in December 2025 and launched Gemini Predictions for US users. What you can trade, how it is funded and settled, its fees, and how it compares with Kalshi and Coinbase.
In this article
Gemini Predictions is the prediction market inside the Gemini app, run by the crypto exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss. Its affiliate Gemini Titan received a designated contract market licence from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in December 2025, the end of a licensing process Gemini started in March 2020.
Unlike Coinbase and Robinhood, which route orders to Kalshi, Gemini runs its own regulated exchange.
As of October 2026.
Gemini Predictions at a glance
| Gemini Predictions | |
|---|---|
| Operator | Gemini Titan, a CFTC-designated contract market |
| Licensed | December 2025 |
| Who can use it | US customers with a Gemini account |
| Funding | US dollars in your Gemini exchange account |
| Platforms | Web, iOS and Android |
| Markets | Crypto prices, politics, regulation and other events |
| Fees | Fee-free for a limited time at launch; check the current schedule |
How it works
Each contract is a yes/no question priced from 1¢ to 99¢, paying $1 if the event happens. A contract at 30¢ on "Will bitcoin end the year above $200,000?" means the market gives it about a 30% chance (how to read the odds). Gemini handles clearing and settlement under CFTC rules, and contracts settle on objective, verifiable outcomes.
Because the contracts sit next to your crypto balance, Gemini Predictions suits crypto traders who want to take a view on prices or regulation without leverage. For a broader menu of crypto markets, Polymarket and Kalshi list more (Polymarket crypto markets).
Sports contracts and state pushback
Gemini has also offered sports event contracts. In 2026 Connecticut's regulator said Gemini had stopped offering them in the state, part of the wider state fight over whether sports contracts are gambling (is Kalshi gambling?; is Kalshi legal?).
Gemini vs Kalshi vs Coinbase
| Gemini | Kalshi | Coinbase | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange | Its own (Gemini Titan) | Its own | Kalshi's |
| Funding | USD in Gemini | Bank, card, wire, crypto | USD or USDC in Coinbase |
| Market range | Narrower | Widest | A selection of Kalshi's |
| Best for | Gemini users, crypto questions | Everything, active trading | Coinbase users |
Gemini is a public company: it listed on Nasdaq in 2025, which makes it one of the few listed firms that runs its own prediction exchange (Kalshi and Polymarket stock).
Gemini Predictions: frequently asked questions
Does Gemini have prediction markets?
Yes. Gemini Predictions lets US customers trade yes/no event contracts in the Gemini app, through its CFTC-licensed exchange Gemini Titan.
Is Gemini Predictions legal?
It operates under a CFTC designated contract market licence granted in December 2025. Some states challenge sports contracts specifically.
How do I fund Gemini Predictions?
With US dollars in your Gemini exchange account.
Does Gemini charge fees on predictions?
It launched fee-free for a limited time; check Gemini's current fee schedule.
Is Gemini Predictions the same as Kalshi?
No. Gemini runs its own exchange, while Coinbase and Robinhood route many orders to Kalshi.
