Step-by-step explainers for reading odds, choosing a platform and managing risk.
Manifold is a free prediction market that runs on play money called mana. How mana works, who creates and resolves markets, what sweepcash was, how accurate play money turns out to be, and when Manifold beats Polymarket or Kalshi.
Metaculus is a free forecasting platform, not a market: you submit probabilities, the site aggregates them and scores everyone. How the community prediction, peer and baseline scores, tournaments and resolution work, and how to use Metaculus alongside Polymarket and Kalshi.
Election Day is November 3. Where to watch live election odds from Kalshi and Polymarket, what they say about the Senate, House and key races today, and how prices behave on election night.
Americans can use Polymarket legally through Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated exchange that works in dollars. How to sign up, verify, deposit and trade, how it differs from the global site, and why a VPN is a bad idea.
Kalshi requires users to be 18 or older and to pass identity checks. Why it is 18 and not 21, how verification works, and the age rules on Polymarket, Robinhood, DraftKings and FanDuel.
Polymarket lists crypto markets from hourly “up or down” questions to year-end price targets. The main market types, how they resolve, what they cost, and how to sanity-check a price.
Polymarket blocks 7 sanctioned regions completely and makes more than 35 countries and provinces close-only, including the US, UK, France, Germany, Australia and parts of Canada. The full list, by region.
A 40¢ price means a 40% chance. How to turn Kalshi and Polymarket prices into American, decimal and fractional odds, why prices add up to more than 100%, and how fees change your break-even.
Legally, Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange, not a sportsbook. In practice, a contract on Sunday’s game feels a lot like a bet. Both sides of the question, side by side.
