SpaceX Starship 15th launch?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 05:17 UTCCloses 11 Dec 2026 (in 48 days)
Most likely: Before Dec 11, 2026
All outcomes (5)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Before Dec 11, 2026 | 93% | ▼ 1.0 pts |
Before Nov 27, 2026 | 74% | ▲ 4.0 pts |
Before Nov 13, 2026 | 22% | ▼ 2.0 pts |
Before Oct 16, 2026 | 1% | — |
Before Oct 30, 2026 | 1% | ▼ 1.0 pts |
How this market resolves
If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Dec 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “SpaceX Starship 15th launch”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Before Dec 11, 2026 as the most likely outcome at 93% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 11 Dec 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.