Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 05:44 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)
Most likely: 45%+
All outcomes (5)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
45%+ | 90% | ▲ 13.4 pts |
50%+ | 55% | ▲ 11.0 pts |
55%+ | 11% | ▼ 0.5 pts |
60%+ | 6% | ▼ 3.0 pts |
65%+ | 5% | ▲ 0.5 pts |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price 45%+ as the most likely outcome at 90% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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