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Polymarket

When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?

Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 05:53 UTCCloses 1 Feb 2027 (in 3 mo)

Most likely: November 9–November 15

20%▼ 2.0 pts in 24h
Price over the last 7 days, in %
27%20%14%

All outcomes (8)

OutcomeChance24h
November 9–November 15
20%▼ 2.0 pts
November 30–December 6
13%▲ 1.5 pts
October 26–November 1
13%▼ 3.0 pts
November 16–November 22
12%—
December 21–December 27
11%▼ 2.0 pts
December 14–December 20
9%▲ 8.6 pts
November 2–November 8
9%▲ 1.1 pts
November 23–November 29
8%▲ 0.2 pts

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Astra model (6.1+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price November 9–November 15 as the most likely outcome at 20% (as of 24 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 1 Feb 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.